NDLI: Quantifying future changes in glacier melt and river runoff in the headwaters of the Urumqi River, China

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Zhang, Yiqing Luo, Yi Sun, Lin
Copyright Year	2016
Abstract	Climate change is likely to have significant effects on the water cycle in glacierized basins. Here, the glacier-enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to simulate glacio-hydrological processes and to estimate the potential hydrological changes driven by downscaled future climate projections of five Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) in the headwaters of the Urumqi River, Tianshan Mountains, China. The evaluation indices indicated that the model performed well at simulating streamflow during the calibration and validation. The GCM-predicted mean temperature and precipitation both increase. The periods of 1966–1995, 2016–2045 and 2066–2095 were used as the baseline, the near future, and the far future periods, respectively. The results showed different runoff characteristics under various scenarios in the Urumqi Glacier No. 1 (UG1) sub-basin and Urumqi River Basin (URB) due to distinct melt water contributions. In the UG1 sub-basin, the ice melt and glacier melt are expected to reach peak water in the near future and sharply decline in the far future, and the sub-basin runoff would gradually decrease under all RCPs. In the URB, the ice melt and glacier melt rapidly decrease but the river runoff remains stable under RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5, with a slight decrease under RCP 8.5. The grouped glacier area with small size class shows a rapid retreat rate. It was also found that melt water from three grouped glaciers exhibit different responses to future scenarios.
Starting Page	1
Ending Page	14
Page Count	14
File Format	PDF
ISSN	18666280
Journal	Environmental Earth Sciences
Volume Number	75
Issue Number	9
e-ISSN	18666299
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2016-04-25
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Climate change Glacier melt Runoff GCMs Geology Hydrology/Water Resources Geochemistry Environmental Science and Engineering Terrestrial Pollution Biogeosciences
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Global and Planetary Change Earth-Surface Processes Soil Science Environmental Chemistry Pollution Geology Water Science and Technology

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