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Measuring temperature variability of five major cities of Pakistan

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Iqbal, M Jawed
Copyright Year	2010
Abstract	Changes in surface air temperature during the last century are widely discussed among researches in the field of climate change. This paper measures the variability of annual surface air temperature of five major cities of Pakistan (Lahore, Peshawar, Quetta, Hyderabad and Karachi) for the period from 1882 to 2003. We perform an exploratory analysis which shows that the annual landmass air temperature series of five relatively more important climate stations of Pakistan obey the normal distribution. A subsequent trend analysis shows that the temperature has been increasing in the twentieth century for the five (major) cities of Pakistan, the increase being 0.3°C to 1.0°C. We computations based on Bayesian analysis for two samples (e.g., for Lahore, we use data for the period from 1882 to 1960 and 1961–2000 for first sample and second sample, respectively) of temperature data of five cites shows that the average of annual mean temperature for the second period is higher than the average of first period. Thus, Bayesian inferencing shows that the general pattern of evolution of temperature over Pakistan is pretty similar to the current global warming configuration. وتناقش على نطاق واسع التغيرات في درجة حرارة الهواء السطحي خلال القرن الماضي بين الأبحاث في مجال تغير المناخ. هذه الورقة التدابير تباين درجة حرارة الهواء السطحي السنوي من خمس مدن رئيسية في باكستان (لاهور وبيشاور وكويتا وحيدر أباد وكراتشي) للفترة ۱۸۸۲ حتي ۲۰۰۳. نحن إجراء تحليل استكشافية مما يدل على ان الهواء مساحة السنوي سلسلة من درجة الحرارة خمس محطات المناخ نسبيا أكثر أهمية من باكستان الانصياع لتوزيع العادي. تحليل للاتجاهات اللاحقة أظهرت أن درجة الحرارة قد تزايد في القرن۲۰ للمدن (الكبرى) خمسة من باكستان ، ويجري زيادة ۰ء۳حتي ۱ء۰ درجة مئوية. لدينا حسابات على أساس تحليل بايزي لعينتين (مثلا : لاهور ، نختار نموذجين للفترة ۱۸۸۲-۱۹۶۰ و۱۹۶۱-۲۰۰۰) من البيانات درجة حرارة خمس مدن تبين أن متوسط درجات الحرارة السنوية للفترة الثانية هي ارتفاع من متوسط الفترة الأولى. وهكذا ، الاستدلال بايزي يدل على أن النمط العام لتطور درجات الحرارة على باكستان مشابه جدا لتكوين ظاهرة الاحتباس الحراري الحالية.
Starting Page	595
Ending Page	606
Page Count	12
File Format	PDF
ISSN	18667511
Journal	Arabian Journal of Geosciences
Volume Number	4
Issue Number	3-4
e-ISSN	18667538
Language	English
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	2010-11-09
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Temperature Trend Global warming Earth Sciences
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Earth and Planetary Sciences Environmental Science

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