NDLI: A method to predict amplitude and date of maximum sunspot number

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Han, Yanben
Copyright Year	2000
Abstract	A method to predict the amplitude and date of the maximum sunspot number is introduced. The regression analysis of the relationship between the variation rate of monthly sunspot numbers in the initial stage of solar cycles and both of the maximum and the time-length of ascending period of the cycle showed that they are closely correlative. In general, the maximum will be larger and the ascending period will be shorter when the rate is larger. The rate of sunspot numbers in the initial 2 years of the 23rd cycle is thus analyzed based on these grounds and the maximum of the cycle is predicted. For the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers, the maximum will be about 139.2 ±18.8 and the time-length of ascending period will be about 3.31±0.42 years, that is to say, the maximum will appear around the spring of the year 2000. For the mean monthly ones, the maximum will be near 170.1±22.9 and the time-length of ascending period will be about 3.42 ±0.46 years, that is to say, the appearing date of the maximum will be later.
Starting Page	1287
Ending Page	1290
Page Count	4
File Format	PDF
ISSN	10016538
Journal	Chinese Science Bulletin
Volume Number	45
Issue Number	14
e-ISSN	18619541
Language	English
Publisher	Science in China Press
Publisher Date	2000-01-01
Publisher Place	Beijing
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Subject Keyword	solar activity prediction sunspot number 23rd solar cycle Science Life Sciences Physics Chemistry/Food Science Earth Sciences Engineering
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Multidisciplinary

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