NDLI: Flood forecasts based on multi-model ensemble precipitation forecasting using a coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Wu, Juan Lu, Guihua Wu, Zhiyong
Copyright Year	2014
Abstract	The recent improvement of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models has a strong potential for extending the lead time of precipitation and subsequent flooding. However, uncertainties inherent in precipitation outputs from NWP models are propagated into hydrological forecasts and can also be magnified by the scaling process, contributing considerable uncertainties to flood forecasts. In order to address uncertainties in flood forecasting based on single-model precipitation forecasting, a coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system based on multi-model ensemble precipitation forecasting is implemented in a configuration for two episodes of intense precipitation affecting the Wangjiaba sub-region in Huaihe River Basin, China. The present study aimed at comparing high-resolution limited-area meteorological model Canadian regional mesoscale compressible community model (MC2) with the multiple linear regression integrated forecast (MLRF), covering short and medium range. The former is a single-model approach; while the latter one is based on NWP models [(MC2, global environmental multiscale model (GEM), T213L31 global spectral model (T213)] integrating by a multiple linear regression method. Both MC2 and MLRF are coupled with Chinese National Flood Forecasting System (NFFS), MC2-NFFS and MLRF-NFFS, to simulate the discharge of the Wangjiaba sub-basin. The evaluation of the flood forecasts is performed both from a meteorological perspective and in terms of discharge prediction. The encouraging results obtained in this study demonstrate that the coupled system based on multi-model ensemble precipitation forecasting has a promising potential of increasing discharge accuracy and modeling stability in terms of precipitation amount and timing, along with reducing uncertainties in flood forecasts and models. Moreover, the precipitation distribution of MC2 is more problematic in finer temporal and spatial scales, even for the high resolution simulation, which requests further research on storm-scale data assimilation, sub-grid-scale parameterization of clouds and other small-scale atmospheric dynamics.
Starting Page	325
Ending Page	340
Page Count	16
File Format	PDF
ISSN	0921030X
Journal	Natural Hazards
Volume Number	74
Issue Number	2
e-ISSN	15730840
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2014-05-04
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling National Flood Forecasting System (NFFS) Flood forecast Multi-model ensemble precipitation forecasting Natural Hazards Hydrogeology Geophysics/Geodesy Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Civil Engineering Environmental Management
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science Water Science and Technology

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
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4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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