NDLI: Probabilistic flood forecasting and decision-making: an innovative risk-based approach

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Dale, Murray Wicks, Jon Mylne, Ken Pappenberger, Florian Laeger, Stefan Taylor, Steve
Copyright Year	2012
Abstract	Flood forecasting is becoming increasingly important across the world. The exposure of people and property to flooding is increasing and society is demanding improved management of flood risk. At the same time, technological and data advances are enabling improvements in forecasting capabilities. One area where flood forecasting is seeing technical developments is in the use of probabilistic forecasts—these provide a range of possible forecast outcomes that indicate the probability or chance of a flood occurring. While probabilistic forecasts have some distinct benefits, they pose an additional decision-making challenge to those that use them: with a range of forecasts to pick from, which one is right? (or rather, which one(s) can enable me to make the correct decision?). This paper describes an innovative and transferable approach for aiding decision-making with probabilistic forecasts. The proposed risk-based decision-support framework has been tested in a range of flood risk environments: from coastal surge to fluvial catchments to urban storm water scales. The outputs have been designed to be practical and proportionate to the level of flood risk at any location and to be easy to apply in an operational flood forecasting and warning context. The benefits of employing a benefit-cost inspired decision-support framework are that flood forecasting decision-making can be undertaken objectively, with confidence and an understanding of uncertainty, and can save unnecessary effort on flood incident actions. The method described is flexible such that it can be used for a wide range of flood environments with multiple flood incident management actions. It uses a risk-based approach taking into account both the probability and the level of impact of a flood event. A key feature of the framework is that it is based on a full assessment of the flood-related risk, taking into account both the probability and the level of impact of a flood event. A recommendation for action may be triggered by either a higher probability of a lower impact flood or a low probability of a very severe flood. Hence, it is highly innovative as it is the first application of such a risk-based method for flood forecasting and warning purposes. A final benefit is that it is considered to be transferrable to other countries.
Starting Page	159
Ending Page	172
Page Count	14
File Format	PDF
ISSN	0921030X
Journal	Natural Hazards
Volume Number	70
Issue Number	1
e-ISSN	15730840
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2012-11-21
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Flood forecasting Decision-support Benefit-cost Natural Hazards Hydrogeology Geophysics/Geodesy Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Civil Engineering Environmental Management
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science Water Science and Technology

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
6	Contents and Copyright Issues	Queries related to content curation and copyright issues	content@ndl.gov.in
7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
8	Digital Preservation Centre (DPC)	Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books	dpc@ndl.gov.in
9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

Towards a reliable and cost-efficient flood risk management: the case of the Basque Country (Spain)

Default risk-based probabilistic decision model for risk management and control

Flood risk management, an approach to managing cross-border hazards

A local-scale approach to estuarine flood risk management

Methodology for benefit–cost analysis of seismic codes

The Flood Risk in Cairns

Natural hazard risk in the case of an emergency: the real options’ approach

Flood forecasting in the upper Uruguay River basin

Erratum to: Determination of the distribution of flood forecasting error

Probabilistic flood forecasting and decision-making: an innovative risk-based approach

Similar Documents

Towards a reliable and cost-efficient flood risk management: the case of the Basque Country (Spain)

Default risk-based probabilistic decision model for risk management and control

Flood risk management, an approach to managing cross-border hazards

A local-scale approach to estuarine flood risk management

Methodology for benefit–cost analysis of seismic codes

The Flood Risk in Cairns

Natural hazard risk in the case of an emergency: the real options’ approach

Flood forecasting in the upper Uruguay River basin

Erratum to: Determination of the distribution of flood forecasting error

Probabilistic flood forecasting and decision-making: an innovative risk-based approach