NDLI: GAMLSS-based nonstationary modeling of extreme precipitation in Beijing–Tianjin

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Zhang, Dong dong Yan, Deng hua Wang, Yi Cheng Lu, Fan Liu, Shao hua
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	Due to the climate variability and the intensification of human activities, the hydrological time series no longer satisfies the hypothesis of stationarity. In this study, a framework for precipitation frequency analysis is developed based on the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape parameters (GAMLSS), a tool for modeling time series under nonstationary condition. Based on the 12 stations in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region of China, two approaches to nonstationary modeling in GAMLSS were applied to the annual maximum daily precipitation records. The results of the first approach, in which the parameters of the selected distributions are modeled as a function of time only, show the presence of clear nonstationarities in the annual maximum daily precipitation. In the second approach, the parameters of the precipitation distributions are modeled as functions of seven climate indices. The results show that the model using the second method captures more adequately the dispersion of precipitation values than the model using the first method. The application of nonstationary analysis shows the differences between the nonstationary quantiles and their stationary equivalents, which suggests the urgent need for nonstationary modeling of extreme precipitation in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region of China.
Starting Page	1037
Ending Page	1053
Page Count	17
File Format	PDF
ISSN	0921030X
Journal	Natural Hazards
Volume Number	77
Issue Number	2
e-ISSN	15730840
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2015-02-01
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Nonstationary GAMLSS Extreme precipitation BTH region Natural Hazards Hydrogeology Geophysics/Geodesy Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Civil Engineering Environmental Management
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science Water Science and Technology

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