NDLI: Predicting locations of post-fire debris-flow erosion in the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Gartner, J. E. Santi, P. M. Cann, S. H.
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	Timely hazard assessments are needed to assess post-fire debris flows that may impact communities located within and adjacent to recently burned areas. Implementing existing models for debris-flow probability and magnitude can be time-consuming because the geographic extent for applying the models is manually defined. In this study, a model is presented for predicting locations of post-fire debris-flow erosion. This model is further calibrated to identify the geographic extent for applying post-fire hazard assessment models. Aerial photographs were used to map locations of post-fire debris-flow erosion and deposition in the San Gabriel Mountains. Terrain, burn severity, and soil characteristics expected to influence debris-flow erosion and deposition were calculated for each mapped location using 10-m resolution DEMs, GIS data for burn severity, and soil surveys. Multiple logistic regression was used to develop a model that predicts the probability of erosion as a function of channel slope, planform curvature, and the length of the longest upstream flow path. The model was validated using an independent database of mapped locations of debris-flow erosion and deposition and found to make accurate and precise predictions. The model was further calibrated by identifying the average percentage of the drainage network classified as erosion for mapped locations where debris flows transitioned from eroding to depositing material. The calibrated model provides critical information for consistent and timely application of post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment models and the ability to identify locations of post-fire debris-flow erosion.
Starting Page	1305
Ending Page	1321
Page Count	17
File Format	PDF
ISSN	0921030X
Journal	Natural Hazards
Volume Number	77
Issue Number	2
e-ISSN	15730840
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2015-02-12
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Debris flow Post-fire erosion Hazard assessment Logistic regression Natural Hazards Hydrogeology Geophysics/Geodesy Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Civil Engineering Environmental Management
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science Water Science and Technology

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