NDLI: Effect of alternative distributions of ground motion variability on results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Pavlenko, V. A.
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is a regularly applied practice that precedes the construction of important engineering structures. The Cornell–McGuire procedure is the most frequently applied method of PSHA. This paper examines the fundamental assumption of the Cornell–McGuire procedure for PSHA, namely the log-normal distribution of the residuals of the ground motion parameters. Although the assumption of log-normality is standard, it has not been rigorously tested. Moreover, the application of the unbounded log-normal distribution for the calculation of the hazard curves results in nonzero probabilities of the exceedance of physically unrealistic amplitudes of ground motion parameters. In this study, the distribution of the residuals of the logarithm of peak ground acceleration is investigated, using the database of the strong-motion seismograph networks of Japan and the ground motion prediction equation of Zhao and co-authors. The distribution of residuals is modelled by a number of probability distributions, and the one parametric law that approximates the distribution most precisely is chosen by the statistical criteria. The results of the analysis show that the most accurate approximation is achieved with the generalized extreme value distribution for a central part of a distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution for its upper tail. The effect of replacing a log-normal distribution in the main equation of the Cornell–McGuire method is demonstrated by the calculation of hazard curves for a simple hypothetical example. These hazard curves differ significantly from one another, especially at low annual exceedance probabilities.
Starting Page	1917
Ending Page	1930
Page Count	14
File Format	PDF
ISSN	0921030X
Journal	Natural Hazards
Volume Number	78
Issue Number	3
e-ISSN	15730840
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2015-05-30
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Ground motion variability Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis Hazard curve Ground motion prediction equation Peak ground acceleration Natural Hazards Hydrogeology Geophysics/Geodesy Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Civil Engineering Environmental Management
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science Water Science and Technology

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