NDLI: The conceptualization model problem

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Bredehoeft, John
Copyright Year	2005
Abstract	The foundation of model analysis is the conceptual model. Surprise is defined as new data that renders the prevailing conceptual model invalid; as defined here it represents a paradigm shift. Limited empirical data indicate that surprises occur in 20–30% of model analyses. These data suggest that groundwater analysts have difficulty selecting the appropriate conceptual model. There is no ready remedy to the conceptual model problem other than (1) to collect as much data as is feasible, using all applicable methods—a complementary data collection methodology can lead to new information that changes the prevailing conceptual model, and (2) for the analyst to remain open to the fact that the conceptual model can change dramatically as more information is collected. In the final analysis, the hydrogeologist makes a subjective decision on the appropriate conceptual model. The conceptualization problem does not render models unusable. The problem introduces an uncertainty that often is not widely recognized. Conceptual model uncertainty is exacerbated in making long-term predictions of system performance.C’est le modèle conceptuel qui se trouve à base d’une analyse sur un modèle. On considère comme une surprise lorsque le modèle est invalidé par des données nouvelles; dans les termes définis ici la surprise est équivalente à un change de paradigme. Des données empiriques limitées indiquent que les surprises apparaissent dans 20 à 30% des analyses effectuées sur les modèles. Ces données suggèrent que l’analyse des eaux souterraines présente des difficultés lorsqu’il s’agit de choisir le modèle conceptuel approprié. Il n’existe pas un autre remède au problème du modèle conceptuel que: (1) rassembler autant des données que possible en utilisant toutes les méthodes applicables—la méthode des données complémentaires peut conduire aux nouvelles informations qui vont changer le modèle conceptuel, et (2) l’analyste doit rester ouvert au fait que le modèle conceptuel peut bien changer lorsque des nouvelles informations apparaissent. Dans l’analyse finale le hydrogéologue prend une décision subjective sur le modèle conceptuel approprié. Le problème du le modèle conceptuel ne doit pas rendre le modèle inutilisable. Ce problème introduit une incertitude qui n’est pas toujours reconnue. Les incertitudes du modèle conceptuel deviennent plus importantes dans les cases de prévisions à long terme dans l’analyse de performance.La base para hacer un análisis de un modelo es el modelo conceptual. Se define aquí la sorpresa como los datos nuevos que convierten en incoherente al modelo conceptual previamente aceptado; tal como se define aquí esto representa un cambio de paradigma. Los datos empíricos limitados indican que estas sorpresas suceden entre un 20 a un 30% de los análisis de modelos. Esto sugiere que los analistas de modelos de agua subterránea tienen dificultades al seleccionar el modelo conceptual apropiado. No hay otra solución disponible a este problema del modelo conceptual diferente de: (1) Recolectar tanta información como sea posible, mediante la utilización de todos los métodos aplicables, lo cual puede resultar en que esta nueva información ayude a cambiar el modelo conceptual vigente, y (2) Que el analista de modelos se mantenga siempre abierto al hecho de que un modelo conceptual puede cambiar de manera total, en la medida en que se colecte mas información. En el análisis final el hidrogeólogo toma una decisión subjetiva en cuanto al modelo conceptual apropiado. El problema de la conceptualización no produce modelos inútiles. El problema presenta una incertidumbre, la cual a menudo no es tenida en cuenta de manera adecuada. Esta incertidumbre en los modelos conceptuales se aumenta, cuando se hacen predicciones a largo plazo del comportamiento de un sistema dado.
Starting Page	37
Ending Page	46
Page Count	10
File Format	PDF
ISSN	14312174
Journal	Hydrogeology Journal
Volume Number	13
Issue Number	1
e-ISSN	14350157
Language	English
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	2005-02-25
Publisher Institution	International Association of Hydrogeologists
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Numerical modeling Conceptual models Groundwater mangement Data collection and analysis Mistaken model predictions
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Earth and Planetary Sciences Water Science and Technology

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
6	Contents and Copyright Issues	Queries related to content curation and copyright issues	content@ndl.gov.in
7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
8	Digital Preservation Centre (DPC)	Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books	dpc@ndl.gov.in
9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

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