NDLI: Bulgarian mountains air temperatures and precipitation—statistical downscaling of global climate models and some projections

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	jarov, Peter
Copyright Year	2012
Abstract	Measured air temperature and precipitation data from three high mountainous Bulgarian stations were used along with data from 18 global climate models (GCMs). Air temperature and precipitation outputs of preindustrial control experiment were compared with actually observed values. GCM with the best overall performance is BCCR BCM 2.0 for air temperatures (period 1941–2009) and CGCM 3.1/T47 for precipitation (period 1947–2009). Statistical methods were used in this research—nonparametric Spearman correlation, Mann–Whitney test, multiple linear regression, etc. Projections were made for the following future decades: 2015–2024, 2045–2054 and 2075–2084. The best months, described by multiple linear regression (MLR) model of air temperatures, are November, January, March, and May. The worst described are summer months. There is not any pattern in the relationship between constructed MLR models and measured precipitation. Models that perform the best in different months at the three investigated stations are MIUB ECHO-G, GISS AOM, CGCM 3.1/T63, and CNRM CM3 for air temperatures and GFDL CM 2.1, GISS AOM, and MIUB ECHO-G for precipitation. The fit between statistical models' outputs and values observed at stations is different, better in cold part of the year. There will be mixed future changes of air temperatures at all the three high mountainous stations. An increase of temperatures is expected in April, November, and December. A decrease will happen in February, July, and October. Mean annual temperatures are expected to rise by 0.1 °C (Botev) to 0.2 °C (Musala and Cherni vrah) in the decade 2075–2084, but mean annual temperatures at the end of the period with measurements (2009) has already exceeded by far projected values. Trends in precipitation are mixed both in spatial and in temporal directions. Observed decrease of precipitation, especially in the warm half of the year, is not described well in MLR models. The same is valid for annual amounts, which are projected to be higher than those measured in the end of instrumental period (2009). This is opposite to observed trends in recent decades, especially at stations Cherni vrah and Botev, where a significant decrease of precipitation amounts has happened.
Starting Page	631
Ending Page	644
Page Count	14
File Format	PDF
ISSN	0177798X
Journal	Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Volume Number	110
Issue Number	4
e-ISSN	14344483
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Vienna
Publisher Date	2012-07-15
Publisher Place	Vienna
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution Waste Water Technology / Water Pollution Control / Water Management / Aquatic Pollution Climate Change Meteorology/Climatology
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

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