NDLI: Evaluation of machine learning tools as a statistical downscaling tool: temperatures projections for multi-stations for Thames River Basin, Canada

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Goyal, Manish Kumar Burn, Donald H. Ojha, C. S. P.
Copyright Year	2011
Abstract	Many impact studies require climate change information at a finer resolution than that provided by global climate models (GCMs). This paper investigates the performances of existing state-of-the-art rule induction and tree algorithms, namely single conjunctive rule learner, decision table, M5 model tree, and REPTree, and explores the impact of climate change on maximum and minimum temperatures (i.e., predictands) of 14 meteorological stations in the Upper Thames River Basin, Ontario, Canada. The data used for evaluation were large-scale predictor variables, extracted from National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis dataset and the simulations from third generation Canadian coupled global climate model. Data for four grid points covering the study region were used for developing the downscaling model. M5 model tree algorithm was found to yield better performance among all other learning techniques explored in the present study. Hence, this technique was applied to project predictands generated from GCM using three scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1) for the periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100). A simple multiplicative shift was used for correcting predictand values. The potential of the downscaling models in simulating predictands was evaluated, and downscaling results reveal that the proposed downscaling model can reproduce local daily predictands from large-scale weather variables. Trend of projected maximum and minimum temperatures was studied for historical as well as downscaled values using GCM and scenario uncertainty. There is likely an increasing trend for T max and T min for A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios while decreasing trend has been observed for B1 scenarios during 2081–2100.
Starting Page	519
Ending Page	534
Page Count	16
File Format	PDF
ISSN	0177798X
Journal	Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Volume Number	108
Issue Number	3-4
e-ISSN	14344483
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Vienna
Publisher Date	2011-11-09
Publisher Place	Vienna
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Waste Water Technology / Water Pollution Control / Water Management / Aquatic Pollution Climate Change Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution Meteorology/Climatology
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

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