NDLI: From field data to volumes: constraining uncertainties in pyroclastic eruption parameters

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Klawonn, Malin Houghton, Bruce F. Swanson, Donald A. Fagents, Sarah A. Wessel, Paul Wolfe, Cecily J.
Copyright Year	2014
Abstract	In this study, we aim to understand the variability in eruption volume estimates derived from field studies of pyroclastic deposits. We distributed paper maps of the 1959 Kīlauea Iki tephra to 101 volcanologists worldwide, who produced hand-drawn isopachs. Across the returned maps, uncertainty in isopach areas is 7 % across the well-sampled deposit but increases to over 30 % for isopachs that are governed by the largest and smallest thickness measurements. We fit the exponential, power-law, and Weibull functions through the isopach thickness versus area1/2 values and find volume estimate variations up to a factor of 4.9 for a single map. Across all maps and methodologies, we find an average standard deviation for a total volume of s = 29 %. The volume uncertainties are largest for the most proximal (s = 62 %) and distal field (s = 53 %) and small for the densely sampled intermediate deposit (s = 8 %). For the Kīlauea Iki 1959 eruption, we find that the deposit beyond the 5-cm isopach contains only 2 % of the total erupted volume, whereas the near-source deposit contains 48 % and the intermediate deposit 50 % of the total volume. Thus, the relative uncertainty within each zone impacts the total volume estimates differently. The observed uncertainties for the different deposit regions in this study illustrate a fundamental problem of estimating eruption volumes: while some methodologies may provide better fits to the isopach data or rely on fewer free parameters, the main issue remains the predictive capabilities of the empirical functions for the regions where measurements are missing.
Starting Page	1
Ending Page	16
Page Count	16
File Format	PDF
ISSN	02588900
Journal	Bulletin of Volcanology
Volume Number	76
Issue Number	7
e-ISSN	14320819
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2014-06-21
Publisher Place	Berlin/Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Isopachs Kīlauea Iki Pyroclastic deposits Tephra Geology Geophysics/Geodesy Mineralogy Sedimentology
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Geochemistry and Petrology

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