NDLI: Does sea surface temperature outside the tropical Pacific contribute to enhanced ENSO predictability?

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Dayan, H. Vialard, J. Izumo, T. Lengaigne, M.
Copyright Year	2013
Abstract	In this paper we seek to identify inter-annual sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) patterns outside the tropical Pacific that may influence El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through atmospheric teleconnections. We assume that a linear ENSO hindcast based on tropical Pacific warm water volume and Niño3.4 SSTA indices captures tropical Pacific intrinsic predictability inherent to recharge oscillator dynamics. This simple hindcast model displays statistically significant skill at the 95 % confidence level at leads of up to seven seasons ahead of the ENSO peak. Our results reveal that ENSO-independent equatorial wind stress anomalies only significantly improve the skill of that linear hindcast at the 95 % level in boreal spring and summer before the ENSO peak and in boreal fall, five seasons ahead of the ENSO peak. At those seasons, the robust large-scale SST patterns that provide a statistically significant enhancement of ENSO predictability are related to the Atlantic meridional mode and south Pacific subtropical dipole mode in spring, the Indian Ocean Dipole and the south Atlantic subtropical dipole mode in fall. While the first two regions display significant simultaneous correlations with western equatorial Pacific wind stress in three reanalyses (ERA-I, NCEP and NCEP2), the Indian Ocean Dipole and south Atlantic subtropical dipole mode correlation with Pacific winds is less robust amongst re-analyses. We discuss our results in view of other studies that suggest a remote influence of various regions on ENSO. Although modest, the sensitivity of our results to the dataset and to details of the analysis method illustrates that finding regions that influence ENSO from the statistical analysis of observations is a difficult task.
Starting Page	1311
Ending Page	1325
Page Count	15
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09307575
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume Number	43
Issue Number	5-6
e-ISSN	14320894
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2013-10-04
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Predictability Teleconnections Geophysics/Geodesy Climatology Oceanography
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
6	Contents and Copyright Issues	Queries related to content curation and copyright issues	content@ndl.gov.in
7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
8	Digital Preservation Centre (DPC)	Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books	dpc@ndl.gov.in
9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

Do regions outside the tropical Pacific influence ENSO through atmospheric teleconnections?

El Niño–Southern Oscillation diversity and Southern Africa teleconnections during Austral Summer

Analysis of the non-linearity in the pattern and time evolution of El Niño southern oscillation

El Niño teleconnections in CMIP5 models

Linear trends in sea surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean and implications for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Long-term stationarity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnections in southeastern Australia

Southern Hemisphere extra-tropical forcing: a new paradigm for El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Seasonal-to-interannual variability of the barrier layer in the western Pacific warm pool associated with ENSO

PDO modulation of ENSO effect on tropical cyclone rapid intensification in the western North Pacific

Does sea surface temperature outside the tropical Pacific contribute to enhanced ENSO predictability?

Similar Documents

Do regions outside the tropical Pacific influence ENSO through atmospheric teleconnections?

El Niño–Southern Oscillation diversity and Southern Africa teleconnections during Austral Summer

Analysis of the non-linearity in the pattern and time evolution of El Niño southern oscillation

El Niño teleconnections in CMIP5 models

Linear trends in sea surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean and implications for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Long-term stationarity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnections in southeastern Australia

Southern Hemisphere extra-tropical forcing: a new paradigm for El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Seasonal-to-interannual variability of the barrier layer in the western Pacific warm pool associated with ENSO

PDO modulation of ENSO effect on tropical cyclone rapid intensification in the western North Pacific

Does sea surface temperature outside the tropical Pacific contribute to enhanced ENSO predictability?