NDLI: Interdecadal change in the Northern Hemisphere seasonal climate prediction skill: part I. The leading forced mode of atmospheric circulation

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Jia, XiaoJing Lee, June Yi Lin, Hai Alessandri, Andrea Ha, Kyung Ja
Copyright Year	2013
Abstract	Using observations and 1-month lead hindcast data from six coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models, this study investigates the interdecadal change in the leading maximum covariance analysis mode (MCA1) of atmospheric circulation in response to the changes in the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurred around late 1970s. We focus on boreal winter climate variability and predictability over the North Pacific–North American (NPNA) region using December–January–February prediction initiated from November 1st in the period of 1960–1980 (P1) and 1981–2001 (P2). Observed analysis reveals that ENSO variability, the related tropical convective activity, and thus the MCA1 are considerably enhanced from P1 to P2. As a result, surface climate anomalies over the NPNA are more significantly correlated with the MCA1 in P2 than P1, particularly over North America. The six coupled models and their multi-model ensemble not only are capable of capturing the interdecadal change of the MCA1 and its relationship with surface air temperature and precipitation over the NPNA regions but also have significantly higher forecast skills for the MCA1 and the surface climate anomalies in P2 than P1. However, models have systematic biases in the spatial distribution of the MCA1. It is demonstrated that the interdecadal change in the MCA1 should contribute to the improved forecast skill of the NPNA climate during recent epoch.
Starting Page	1595
Ending Page	1609
Page Count	15
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09307575
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume Number	43
Issue Number	5-6
e-ISSN	14320894
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2013-11-12
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Interdecadal change Seasonal climate Leading mode Prediction skill El Nino and Southern Oscillation Geophysics/Geodesy Climatology Oceanography
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

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