NDLI: Two key parameters for the El Niño continuum: zonal wind anomalies and Western Pacific subsurface potential temperature

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Lai, Andy Wang Chun Herzog, Michael Graf, Hans F.
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	Different types of El Niño (EN) events have recently been discussed. Based on NCEP–NOAA reanalysis data this analysis explores a number of key parameters that cause a range of EN types over the period 1980–2013. EN events are divided into three types depending on the spatial and temporal evolution of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA): Central Pacific (CPEN), Eastern Pacific (EPEN), and Hybrid (HBEN). We find that EN is a continuous spectrum of events with CPEN and EPEN as the end members. This spectrum mainly depends on two key parameters: the 130°E–160°E Western Pacific 5–250 m subsurface oceanic potential temperature anomaly about 1 year before the EN peak (typically January and February), and the 140°E–160°W cumulative zonal wind anomaly (ZWA) between onset and peak of the EN event. Using these two parameters, about 70 % of the total variance of the maximum SSTA realised in different Niño regions can already be explained up to 6 months before the maximum SSTA occurs. This offers a rather simple potential for ENSO prediction. A necessary condition for the evolution of an EPEN, the Western Pacific is in the recharged state. Strong and sustained westerly wind anomalies in Western Pacific can then trigger a Kelvin wave propagating to the eastern Pacific. Both parameters, potential temperature and zonal wind anomaly, constructively interfere. For a CPEN, these parameters are much less important. Kelvin wave propagation is not involved in the evolution of the event. Instead, the Central Pacific warming is caused locally by a zonal advection feedback and local air–sea interaction as already demonstrated in previous studies. The HBEN occurs when both parameters interfere in different ways: (1) Western Pacific is weakly charged, but strong westerly ZWA are observed that reduce the equatorial upwelling in the Central Pacific while the triggered Kelvin wave is too weak to have a significant effect; (2) Western Pacific is strongly charged but only weak westerly ZWA develop, so that the resulting Kelvin wave cannot fully extend into the eastern-most Pacific.
Starting Page	3461
Ending Page	3480
Page Count	20
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09307575
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume Number	45
Issue Number	11-12
e-ISSN	14320894
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2015-03-13
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Central Pacific El Niño El Niño continuum Zonal wind anomalies Oceanic potential temperature Thermocline discharge–recharge state Geophysics/Geodesy Climatology Oceanography
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

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