NDLI: Probabilistic tail dependence of intense precipitation on spatiotemporal scale in observations, reanalyses, and GCMs

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Cavanaugh, Nicholas R. Gershuv, Alexander
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	Daily precipitation variability as observed from weather stations is heavy tailed at most locations around the world. It is thought that diversity in precipitation-causing weather events is fundamental in producing heavy-tailed distributions, and it arises from theory that at least one of the precipitation types contributing to a heavy-tailed climatological record must also be heavy-tailed. Precipitation is a multi-scale phenomenon with a rich spatial structure and short decorrelation length and timescales; the spatiotemporal scale at which precipitation is observed is thus an important factor when considering its statistics and extremes. In this study, we examine the spatiotemporal scaling behavior of intense precipitation from point-scale to large grid cells and from 1 day to 4 weeks over the entire globe. We go on to validate the current generation of historically-forced climate models and reanalyses against observational data at consistent spatial scales. Our results demonstrate that the prevalence and magnitude of heavy tails in observations decrease when moving to lower spatiotemporal resolutions, as is consistent with stochastic theory. Reanalyses and climate models generally reproduce large, synoptic scale distribution classifications, but struggle to reproduce the statistics in regions that are strongly affected by mesoscale phenomena. We discuss these results in relation to physically consistent atmospheric regimes. We conclude with a global view of precipitation distribution type at daily resolution as calculated from the best-performing reanalysis, the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis.
Starting Page	2965
Ending Page	2975
Page Count	11
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09307575
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume Number	45
Issue Number	11-12
e-ISSN	14320894
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2015-03-03
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Daily intense precipitation Extremes Heavy tails Extreme value theory Scale dependence Geophysics/Geodesy Climatology Oceanography
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

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