NDLI: Extracting the tropospheric short-wave influences on subseasonal prediction of precipitation in the United States using CFSv2

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Schroeder, Martin Wang, S. Y. Simon Gillies, Robert R. Hsu, Huang Hsiung
Copyright Year	2016
Abstract	The development of subseasonal precipitation forecasts on regional scales is becoming an active area of research. Climate forecast models have shown deficiencies in predicting the extreme precipitation anomalies at medium to long-range timescales. This study explores the subseasonal relationships between tropospheric short-waves and regional precipitation anomalies across the continental United States and evaluates capabilities of the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) in resolving these relationships. A regional precipitation proxy is derived from the prediction of the upper tropospheric short-waves based on multiple linear regressions. Across the six climate regions defined by NOAA, the 30-day reforecasts of this short-wave based precipitation proxy are compared to identify the combinations of month and zonal wavenumber that exhibit the highest prediction score. Forecast of this precipitation proxy over certain regions is found to outperform the direct precipitation output of CFSv2 out to 4 weeks, suggesting a subseasonal predictability in precipitation that can be harvested from persistent circulation features.
Starting Page	3967
Ending Page	3974
Page Count	8
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09307575
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume Number	48
Issue Number	11-12
e-ISSN	14320894
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2016-08-24
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	CFSv2 Shortwave teleconnections Subseasonal precipitation forecasting Midlatitude dynamics Geophysics/Geodesy Climatology Oceanography
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

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