NDLI: Improvements in the representation of the Indian summer monsoon in the NCEP climate forecast system version 2

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Bombardi, Rodrigo J. Schneider, Edwin K. Marx, Lawrence Halder, Subhadeep Singh, Bohar Tawfik, Ahmed B. Dirmeyer, Paul A. Kinter, James L.
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	A new triggering mechanism for deep convection based on the heated condensation framework (HCF) is implemented into the National Centers for Environmental Prediction climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2). The new trigger is added as an additional criterion in the simplified Arakawa–Schubert scheme for deep convection. Seasonal forecasts are performed to evaluate the influence of the new triggering mechanism in the representation of the Indian summer monsoon in the CFSv2. The HCF trigger improves the seasonal representation of precipitation over the Indian subcontinent. The new triggering mechanism leads to a significant, albeit relatively small, improvement in the bias of seasonal precipitation totals. In addition, the new trigger improves the representation of the seasonal precipitation cycle including the monsoon onset, and the probability distribution of precipitation intensities. The mechanism whereby the HCF improves convection over India seems to be related not only to a better representation of the background state of atmospheric convection but also to an increase in the frequency in which SAS is triggered. As a result, there was an increase in convective precipitation over India favored by the availability of moist convective instability. The increase in precipitation intensity leads to a reduction in the dry bias.
Starting Page	2485
Ending Page	2498
Page Count	14
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09307575
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume Number	45
Issue Number	9-10
e-ISSN	14320894
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2015-01-23
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Trigger function CFSv2 Indian summer monsoon Seasonal predictability Convection Geophysics/Geodesy Climatology Oceanography
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

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