NDLI: Improvement of 6–15 day precipitation forecasts using a time-lagged ensemble method

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Jie, Weihua Wu, Tongwen Wang, Jun Li, Weijing Liu, Xiangwen
Copyright Year	2014
Abstract	A time-lagged ensemble method is used to improve 6–15 day precipitation forecasts from the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model, version 2.0.1. The approach averages the deterministic predictions of precipitation from the most recent model run and from earlier runs, all at the same forecast valid time. This lagged average forecast (LAF) method assigns equal weight to each ensemble member and produces a forecast by taking the ensemble mean. Our analyses of the Equitable Threat Score, the Hanssen and Kuipers Score, and the frequency bias indicate that the LAF using five members at time-lagged intervals of 6 h improves 6–15 day forecasts of precipitation frequency above 1 mm d−1 and 5 mm d−1 in many regions of China, and is more effective than the LAF method with selection of the time-lagged interval of 12 or 24 h between ensemble members. In particular, significant improvements are seen over regions where the frequencies of rainfall days are higher than about 40%–50% in the summer season; these regions include northeastern and central to southern China, and the southeastern Tibetan Plateau.
Starting Page	293
Ending Page	304
Page Count	12
File Format	PDF
ISSN	02561530
Journal	Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
Volume Number	31
Issue Number	2
e-ISSN	18619533
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2014-02-08
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	time-lagged ensemble system lagged average forecast 6–15 day forecasts precipitation Atmospheric Sciences Meteorology Geophysics/Geodesy
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

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