NDLI: A regional ensemble forecast system for stratiform precipitation events in northern China. Part I: A case study

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Zhu, Jiangshan Kong, Fanyou Lei, Hengchi
Copyright Year	2012
Abstract	A single-model, short-range, ensemble forecasting system (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Regional Ensemble Forecast System, IAP REFS) with 15-km grid spacing, configured with multiple initial conditions, multiple lateral boundary conditions, and multiple physics parameterizations with 11 ensemble members, was developed using the Weather and Research Forecasting Model Advanced Research modeling system for prediction of stratiform precipitation events in northern China. This is the first part of a broader research project to develop a novel cloud-seeding operational system in a probabilistic framework. The ensemble perturbations were extracted from selected members of the National Center for Environmental Prediction Global Ensemble Forecasting System (NCEP GEFS) forecasts, and an inflation factor of two was applied to compensate for the lack of spread in the GEFS forecasts over the research region. Experiments on an actual stratiform precipitation case that occurred on 5–7 June 2009 in northern China were conducted to validate the ensemble system. The IAP REFS system had reasonably good performance in predicting the observed stratiform precipitation system. The perturbation inflation enlarged the ensemble spread and alleviated the underdispersion caused by parent forecasts. Centering the extracted perturbations on higher-resolution NCEP Global Forecast System forecasts resulted in less ensemble mean root-mean-square error and better accuracy in probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPF). However, the perturbation inflation and recentering had less effect on near-surface-level variables compared to the mid-level variables, and its influence on PQPF resolution was limited as well.
Starting Page	201
Ending Page	216
Page Count	16
File Format	PDF
ISSN	02561530
Journal	Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
Volume Number	29
Issue Number	1
e-ISSN	18619533
Language	English
Publisher	SP Science Press
Publisher Date	2011-12-23
Publisher Place	Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	short-range ensemble forecast rain enhancement operation probabilistic forecast Meteorology/Climatology Geophysics/Geodesy
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
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4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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