NDLI: Assessment of indices of temperature extremes simulated by multiple CMIP5 models over China

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Dong, Siyan Xu, Ying Zhou, Botao Shi, Ying
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	Given that climate extremes in China might have serious regional and global consequences, an increasing number of studies are examining temperature extremes in China using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. This paper investigates recent changes in temperature extremes in China using 25 state-of-the-art global climate models participating in CMIP5. Thirteen indices that represent extreme temperature events were chosen and derived by daily maximum and minimum temperatures, including those representing the intensity (absolute indices and threshold indices), duration (duration indices), and frequency (percentile indices) of extreme temperature. The overall performance of each model is summarized by a “portrait” diagram based on relative root-mean-square error, which is the RMSE relative to the median RMSE of all models, revealing the multi-model ensemble simulation to be better than individual model for most indices. Compared with observations, the models are able to capture the main features of the spatial distribution of extreme temperature during 1986–2005. Overall, the CMIP5 models are able to depict the observed indices well, and the spatial structure of the ensemble result is better for threshold indices than frequency indices. The spread amongst the CMIP5 models in different subregions for intensity indices is small and the median CMIP5 is close to observations; however, for the duration and frequency indices there can be wide disagreement regarding the change between models and observations in some regions. The model ensemble also performs well in reproducing the observational trend of temperature extremes. All absolute indices increase over China during 1961–2005.
Starting Page	1077
Ending Page	1091
Page Count	15
File Format	PDF
ISSN	02561530
Journal	Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
Volume Number	32
Issue Number	8
e-ISSN	18619533
Language	English
Publisher	Science Press
Publisher Date	2015-06-10
Publisher Place	Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	temperature extremes China CMIP5 model evaluation Atmospheric Sciences Meteorology Geophysics/Geodesy
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

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