NDLI: Analyses of extreme climate events over china based on CMIP5 historical and future simulations

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Yang, Shili Feng, Jinming Dong, Wenjie Chou, Jieming
Copyright Year	2014
Abstract	Based on observations and 12 simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, climatic extremes and their changes over China in the past and under the future scenarios of three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are analyzed. In observations, frost days (FD) and low-temperature threshold days (TN10P) show a decreasing trend, and summer days (SU), high-temperature threshold days (TX90P), heavy precipitation days (R20), and the contribution of heavy precipitation days (P95T) show an increasing trend. Most models are able to simulate the main characteristics of most extreme indices. In particular, the mean FD and TX90P are reproduced the best, and the basic trends of FD, TN10P, SU and TX90P are represented. For the FD and SU indexes, most models show good ability in capturing the spatial differences between the mean state of the periods 1986–2005 and 1961–80; however, for other indices, the simulation abilities for spatial disparity are less satisfactory and need to be improved. Under the high emissions scenario of RCP8.5, the century-scale linear changes of the multi-model ensemble (MME) for FD, SU, TN10P, TX90P, R20 and P95T are −46.9, 46.0, −27.1, 175.4, and 2.9 days, and 9.9%, respectively; and the spatial change scope for each index is consistent with the emissions intensity. Due to the complexities of physical process parameterizations and the limitation of forcing data, great uncertainty still exists with respect to the simulation of climatic extremes.
Starting Page	1209
Ending Page	1220
Page Count	12
File Format	PDF
ISSN	02561530
Journal	Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
Volume Number	31
Issue Number	5
e-ISSN	18619533
Language	English
Publisher	Science Press
Publisher Date	2014-07-16
Publisher Place	Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	extreme climate China CMIP5 RCPs Atmospheric Sciences Meteorology Geophysics/Geodesy
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

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