NDLI: A proposed real options method for assessing investments

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Arasteh, Abdollah Aliahmadi, Alireza
Copyright Year	2013
Abstract	Real options analysis is being increasingly used for assessing investments under uncertainty; however, traditional real options methods have some characteristics that restrict their use, such as modeling the value of the underlying asset using geometric Brownian motion and assuming a fixed cost in exercising the options. In this paper, another real options method is expounded that mitigates some of the difficulties posed by traditional methods. Another important aspect that we analyzed in this paper is considering the fuzzy aspects of real options theory. In this section, we are trying to use fuzzy logic concepts integrated with system dynamics to assessing real options in investment projects and we examine dynamic versions of fuzzy logic systems. System dynamics (SD) is an effective method for studying dynamic conditions and changes in complex systems. In this paper, a new dynamic model of real-world systems is designed based on the concepts of system dynamic and fuzzy logic approach. The method is explained with an example from aviation. The analysis offers obvious proof that the integrated fuzzy–SD model could help investors to decide how they should choose an investment program, that managers can use the same results to restructure the program to improve the financial feasibility of the project, and that both investors and managers can define minimum needs to ensure program success.
Starting Page	1377
Ending Page	1393
Page Count	17
File Format	PDF
ISSN	02683768
Journal	The International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology
Volume Number	70
Issue Number	5-8
e-ISSN	14333015
Language	English
Publisher	Springer London
Publisher Date	2013-10-22
Publisher Place	London
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Investment analysis Real options (RO) Automobile industry System dynamics Monte Carlo simulation Fuzzy logic Industrial and Production Engineering Production/Logistics/Supply Chain Mechanical Engineering Computer-Aided Engineering (CAD, CAE) and Design
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering Control and Systems Engineering Mechanical Engineering Computer Science Applications Software

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