NDLI: Predictability of Indian Monsoon Circulation with High Resolution ECMWF Model in the Perspective of Tropical Forecast During the Tropical Convection Year 2008

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	De, S. Sahai, A. K.
Copyright Year	2013
Abstract	To address some of the issues of project Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) and the project ATHENA as ongoing international activities, an endeavor has been made for the first time to study the predictability of Indian summer monsoon in the backdrop of tropical predictability using 850 hPa atmospheric circulations with the high resolution (T1279) ECMWF model during the boreal summer of 2008 as one of the focus years of YOTC. The major findings obtained from the statistical forecast have been substantiated by the dynamical prediction in terms of the systematic error energy, its growth rate and the attribution of the dominant nonlinear dynamical processes to error growth. The systematic error energy of T1279 (16 km resolution) ECMWF model are generated in African landmass, India and its adjoining oceanic region, in near equatorial west Pacific and around the Madagascar region where the root mean square errors are observed and the zonal wind anomaly shows poor forecast skill. As far as the inadequate predictability of Indian summer monsoon by T1279 ECMWF model (revealed from the results of project ATHENA) is concerned, the systematic error energy and the error growth over Arabian Sea, in the eastern and western India due to the nonlinear convergence and divergence of error flux along with the erroneous Mascarene high may possibly be the determining factors for not showing any discernable improvement in Indian monsoon during the medium range forecast up to 240 h. This work suggests that the higher resolution of ECMWF model may not necessarily lead to the better forecast of Indian monsoon circulations during 2008 unless a methodology can be devised to isolate the errors due to the nonlinear processes that are inherent within the system.
Starting Page	2351
Ending Page	2368
Page Count	18
File Format	PDF
ISSN	00334553
Journal	Pure and applied geophysics
Volume Number	170
Issue Number	12
e-ISSN	14209136
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Basel
Publisher Date	2013-02-01
Publisher Place	Basel
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Predictability project YOTC project ATHENA systematic error energy ECMWF model Indian summer monsoon Geophysics/Geodesy
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Geochemistry and Petrology Geophysics

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