Loading...
Please wait, while we are loading the content...
Similar Documents
A Parimutuel-like Mechanism for Information Aggregation: Forecasting Inside Intel
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Gillen, Benjamin J. Plott, Charles R. Shum, Matthew |
| Copyright Year | 2013 |
| Abstract | We evaluate the performance of an information aggregation mechanism (IAM) implemented inside Intel to forecast unit sales for the company. Developed, rened and tested in the laboratory using experimental methods, the IAM is constructed from institutional features that improve performance and overcome barriers to successful applications of other information aggregation methods. Its implementation at Intel provides a testbed for evaluating this new form of IAM’s performance in a complex eld environment. In contrast to prediction markets, which provide only a point forecast of future sales, the IAM characterizes the full distribution of participants’ aggregated beliefs allowing a more detailed evaluation of its performance. We show this predictive distribution very closely matches the distribution over outcomes at short horizons while slightly underweighting low-probability realizations of unit sales at long horizons. Compared to Intel’s \ocial forecast," the IAM forecasts perform well overall, even though they predate the ocial forecasts. The forecast improvements are most prominent at short forecast horizons and in direct distribution channels, where the eective aggregation of individually-held information drives the IAM to be more accurate than the ocial forecast over 75% of the time. |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://authors.library.caltech.edu/44652/1/IAM%20Forecasting%20inside%20Intel%20131114.pdf |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
