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Inside Intel: Sales Forecasting using an Information Aggregation Mechanism
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Gillen, Benjamin J. Plott, Charles R. |
| Copyright Year | 2013 |
| Abstract | We evaluate the performance of an information aggregation mechanism (IAM) implemented inside Intel to forecast unit sales for the company. Developed, rened and tested in the laboratory using experimental methods, the IAM is designed specically to aggregate information. Its implementation at Intel allows us to test its performance in a much more complex eld environment. The IAM provides not only a point forecast of future sales but also yields the full distribution of participants’ beliefs regarding this variable. This predictive distribution very closely matches the distribution over outcomes at short horizons while slightly underweighting low-probability realizations of unit sales at long horizons. Compared to Intel’s \ocial forecast," the IAM forecasts |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://www.eco.uc3m.es/temp/IAMField_v2matt.pdf |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
