NDLI: Projected spread of Zika virus in the Americas

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Projected spread of Zika virus in the Americas

Content Provider	Semantic Scholar
Author	Zhang, Qian Sun, Kaiyuan Chinazzi, Matteo Brunet, Francis Dean, Natalie E. Rojas, Diana Patricia Merler, Stefano Mistry, Dina Poletti, Piero Rossi, Luca Bray, Margaret Halloran, M. Elizabeth Longini, Ira M. Vespignani, Alessandro
Copyright Year	2016
Abstract	We use a data-driven global stochastic epidemic model to project past and future spread of the Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas. The model has high spatial and temporal resolution, and integrates real-world demographic, human mobility, socioeconomic, temperature, and vector density data. We estimate that the first introduction of ZIKV to Brazil likely occurred between August 2013 and April 2014. We provide simulated epidemic profiles of incident ZIKV infections for several countries in the Americas through December 2016. The ZIKV epidemic is characterized by slow growth and high spatial and seasonal heterogeneity, attributable to the dynamics of the mosquito vector and to the characteristics and mobility of the human populations. We project the expected timing and number of cases of microcephaly assuming three levels of risk associated with ZIKV infection during the first trimester of pregnancy. Our approach represents an early modeling effort aimed at projecting the potential magnitude and timing of the ZIKV epidemic that might be refined as new and more accurate data from the region will be available.
File Format	PDF HTM / HTML
Alternate Webpage(s)	https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2016/12/12/066456.full.pdf
Alternate Webpage(s)	http://biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2016/07/28/066456.full.pdf
Alternate Webpage(s)	http://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2016/12/12/066456.full.pdf
Alternate Webpage(s)	https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2016/07/29/066456.full.pdf
Alternate Webpage(s)	http://biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2016/07/29/066456.full.pdf
Language	English
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Culicidae HIV Infections Microcephaly Population Projections and Predictions Surgical Wound Infection Zika Virus Infection
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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