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Working ! Paper ! no . ! 5 ! ! ! ! Combine ! to ! compete : ! improving ! fiscal ! forecast ! accuracy ! over ! time ! Laura ! Carabotta ! and ! Peter !
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Carabotta, Laura Claeysb, Peter |
| Copyright Year | 2016 |
| Abstract | Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model. |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://research.vub.ac.be/sites/default/files/uploads/BUTO/Working-Papers/es_working_paper_5_-_carabotta_l._claeys_p._2016_combine_to_compete._improving_fiscal_forecast_accuracy_over_time.pdf |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
