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Combine to compete : improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Universitat, Laura Carabotta Claeys, Peter |
| Copyright Year | 2015 |
| Abstract | Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model.. JEL Codes: G12, C14, E43, E62, H62, H63. |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://diposit.ub.edu/dspace/bitstream/2445/65700/1/E15-320_Carabotta-Claeys.pdf |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Subject Keyword | Appendix Autoregressive model Chromium Embedded Framework Data Table Detailed balance FEC protocol Guanosine Diphosphate Maxillary right third molar implant Microsoft Outlook for Mac Missing data Multiplication Platyrrhini Projections and Predictions Read-write memory Real-time clock Real-time computing Real-time transcription Scientific Publication Year 2000 problem standards characteristics |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
