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Um modelo para previsão de prazo e custo em empreendimentos de construção civil com aplicação dos filtros de Kalman
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Santos, Roberto Barbosa Dos |
| Copyright Year | 2015 |
| Abstract | Within the responsibilities of managers of construction projects is the generation of reports for monitoring and identifying and communicating trends. In this sense, predict performance in time and cost can help managers in the decision-making process. The Project Management Institute provides a set of indices which measure the tendency of a project, however this approach has been criticized for not considering the probabilistic nature of the variables that characterize the state of the project in time. The application of linear filters is the approach most often used for stochastic systems so that the Kalman filter is being increasingly used. Therefore, this paper focuses on the development of a predictive model for time and cost from the application of the Kalman filter for building construction development. Thus, built a database to estimate the necessary application of the filter parameters, and the calibration and validation of the proposed model. By applying the filter after the adaptation period, less than 5% in the forecast for the next month and to 20% for forecasting the end of the project errors were observed. |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://repositorio.ufsc.br/bitstream/handle/123456789/169348/337474.pdf?isAllowed=y&sequence=1 |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
