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As Elasticidades Setoriais Das Exportações Brasileiras: Uma Análise Empirica No Curto E Longo Prazo
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Casagrande, Dieisonlenon Feistel, Paulo Ricardo Hidalgo, Álvaro Barrantes Azevedo, André Filipe Zago Zago De |
| Copyright Year | 2016 |
| Abstract | The study aims to analyze the performance of Brazilian exports of Primary and Industrial products to Asia and Blocs NAFTA and the EU for the period 1999-2013. Therefore, the traditional literature of foreign trade, inferred that the determinants of exports are pegged to an index of income from trading partners, the index of relative price of exports and the exchange rate and, through statistical tools, equations for short and long run for the Brazilian sector exports were estimated. Thus, from an extension of the traditional theoretical model of imperfect substitutes, prepared by Goldstein and Khan (1978), the method of Johansen cointegration and Error Correction Model (ECM) for determining the elasticities was used. The results showed that, compared to sectoral impacts, the elasticities of trade with Asia and Nafta that the class of commodities is more sensitive to income, while that of industrial goods is more sensitive to exchange rate variations. On the other hand, exports to the EU, income is the primary determinant of the class of manufactured goods, while commodities are more sensitive to exchange rates. In reference to average sectorial elasticities, it can be said that income is the main determinant of commodity exports, while industrial products are more sensitive to changes in price levels. Finally, the negative effect of exchange rate volatility, was found to be a dynamic, predominantly short term. Key-Words: Brazilian Exports Sector. Model of Imperfect Substitutes. Elasticities. Área 7: Economia Internacional Classificação JEL: F 13 1 Doutorando PIMES/UFPE e Mestre pelo PPGE&D/UFSM. E-mail: dieisonlenon@yahoo.com.br 2 Professor Adjunto do Departamento de Economia e do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia e Desenvolvimento (PPG&D) da Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM). E-mail: prfeistel@yahoo.com.br 3 Doutor em Economia pela Universidade de São Paulo. Professor do Departamento de Economia e do Programa de PósGraduação em Economia (PIMES) da Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE) e Pesquisador do Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq). E-mail: abarrantes@uol.com.br 4 Professor do Mestrado em Economia e do Mestrado Profissional em Gestão e Negócios/ Unisinos e Pesquisador do Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq). E-mail: aazevedo@unisinos.br |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://www.anpec.org.br/encontro/2014/submissao/files_I/i7-450f1a38fb122ac7bc3c6ef1e8578848.pdf |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
