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Assessing the Skill of Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts of Severe MCS Winds from the SSEO
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Hepper, Robert M. |
| Copyright Year | 2016 |
| Abstract | The development and usage of convectionallowing models (CAMs) over the past decade has resulted in a general improvement in convective forecasts, due to their ability to reasonably represent the location, mode, and evolution of convection (Done et al. 2004; Weisman et al. 2008). Significant questions remain, however, in the ability to diagnose the explicit threat of individual severe hazards (tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds) from CAMs. Model diagnostics, such as updraft helicity (Kain et al. 2008) and various hail proxies (Adams-Selin and Ziegler 2016; Gagne et al. 2015), have been developed to assess the potential for tornadoes and large hail. Little work, however, has been done in developing techniques to diagnose severe winds from mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). As a result, forecasting severe MCSs currently relies on an examination of a combination of traditional environmental conditions favorable for MCSs, such as instability and vertical wind shear (Johns and Doswell 1992), alongside simulated radar and probabilistic 10-meter wind fields produced by CAM ensemble guidance. Verification of these CAM ensemble probabilistic 10-meter wind fields is therefore crucial. This study will examine severe wind forecasts from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) StormScale Ensemble of Opportunity (SSEO; Jirak et al. 2012), a seven-member ensemble comprised of individual deterministic CAMs, including three WRF-ARW members and four WRF-NMM/NEMSNMMB members (Table 1). Additionally, two of the seven members are the 12-hour time-lagged members of the NCEP HiRes Window runs. The objectives of this study include developing a technique for verifying probabilistic ensemble forecasts of severe MCS winds, providing guidance for the design of future CAM ensembles |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://ams.confex.com/ams/28SLS/webprogram/Manuscript/Paper300134/SLS%20Extended%20-%20Hepper.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/hepper/sseowind.pdf |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
