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Investigation of the Impact of Convection-Allowing Ensemble Size for Severe Weather Forecasting
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Jirak, Israel L. |
| Copyright Year | 2016 |
| Abstract | One primary goal of annual Spring Forecasting Experiments (SFEs), which are co-organized by NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory and Storm Prediction Center and conducted in NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT), is documenting performance characteristics of experimental, convection-allowing modeling systems (CAMs). Since 2007, the number of CAMs (including CAM ensembles) examined in the SFEs has increased dramatically – six different CAM ensembles were examined in 2015 – and major advances have been made in creating, importing, processing, verifying, and providing analysis and visualization tools for these large and complex datasets. However, progress toward identifying optimal CAM ensemble configurations has been inhibited because the different CAM systems have been independently designed by our diverse collaborators, making it difficult to attribute differences in performance characteristics. Given this background and recent recommendations to NOAA by the international UCACN Model Advisory Committee to unify model development through a collaborative, evidence-driven approach, a much more coordinated effort was established for SFE2016 with regard to convection-allowing ensemble design. This was achieved by working with collaborators on a common set of model specifications (e.g., model version, grid-spacing, domain size, physics, etc.) so that the simulations contributed by each collaborator could be combined to form one large, carefully designed ensemble known as the Community Leveraged Unified Ensemble (CLUE). The CLUE was comprised of 65 members contributed by five research institutions, and represents an unprecedented effort to help guide NOAA's operational modeling efforts. Eight unique experiments were designed within the CLUE framework to examine issues directly relevant to the design of NOAA's future operational CAM-based ensembles. This paper will focus on one of the experiments from the CLUE that explored the impact of ensemble size on convection-allowing forecasts. The basic configuration of the ensemble size experiment can be found in the following section. Results from the comparison of ensembles of different sizes during SFE2016 are presented in the third section, followed by conclusions and discussion. |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/jirak/camsize.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://ams.confex.com/ams/28SLS/webprogram/Manuscript/Paper300907/SLS2016_CLUE_size_exabs.pdf |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
