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Step Aside or Face the Consequences: Explaining the Success and Failure of Compellent Threats to Remove Foreign Leaders
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Downes, Alexander B. |
| Copyright Year | 2017 |
| Abstract | Why do compellent threats demanding the removal of foreign leaders succeed sometimes but not others? Such threats would appear to be unlikely to work: demands for leadership change are harsh and may endanger the personal fate of the targeted leader. This chapter investigates cases of leadership threats in the Militarized Compellent Threat (MCT) dataset to explain why some threats are persuasive whereas others are not. Surprisingly, over 80 percent of leadership threats are successful. I argue that this counterintuitive result is the product of a selection effect: because leadership demands are so ambitious, challengers only issue them when targets are virtually defenseless, namely when the challenger possesses crushing material superiority, is geographically proximate to the target, and the target is diplomatically isolated. Additional factors that facilitate compliance include credible signals by the challenger to deploy its military forces and allowing the targeted leader to flee into exile. |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://alexanderdownes.weebly.com/uploads/9/2/6/8/92684520/downes_leader_threats_2017-03.pdf |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
