NDLI: Poisson-modellering av dödsbränder i Sverige

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Poisson-modellering av dödsbränder i Sverige

Content Provider	Semantic Scholar
Author	Hedberg, Jonatan Lindahl, Elna
Copyright Year	2017
Abstract	The authors of this thesis were tasked with modelling fatal fires in Sweden to answer the question, whether the quarterly number of fires has changed over time. The usage of the Poisson distribution in modelling accidents and mortalities is well attested. Problems arise when measuring the number of fire related mortalities, as several deaths can be attributed to one fire. This violates the assumption of independence of the Poisson distribution. To avoid this, the number of fatal fires is modelled. The number of fires leading to mortalities is approached as a Poisson point process. This allows us to answer the question posed by looking at if and how the intensity of the process varies, which is done by applying Poisson regression with time covariates. The data used comes from the Swedish Civil Contingency Agency. It contains, among others, monthly data of all fatal fires from 1999 to 2016. The monthly data varies to a great extent, which makes modelling difficult. For that reason, the months are summed into quarters. Regressing on the quarterly data, a model containing seasonal components, a linear trend and a breakpoint in mid-2012 is successfully fitted. Winter has, according to the model a positive effect on the incident ratio, while summer has a negative effect. The linear trend acts negatively, meaning that the rate of fatal fires is decreasing. Lastly, the breakpoint, pushes the incident rate down with approximately 20%. With a 99% confidence interval, the model predicts the rate of fatal fires, except for extreme values. To corroborate a decline in the number of fatal fires after mid-2012, a t-test is performed.
File Format	PDF HTM / HTML
Alternate Webpage(s)	http://lup.lub.lu.se/luur/download?fileOId=8901197&func=downloadFile&recordOId=8901194
Language	English
Access Restriction	Open
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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