NDLI: When to stop managing or surveying cryptic threatened species

Content Provider	PubMed Central
Author	Chadès, Iadine Eve, Mcdonald-madden Mccarthy, Michael A. Wintle, Brendan Matthew, Linkie Possingham, Hugh P.
Abstract	Threatened species become increasingly difficult to detect as their populations decline. Managers of such cryptic threatened species face several dilemmas: if they are not sure the species is present, should they continue to manage for that species or invest the limited resources in surveying? We find optimal solutions to this problem using a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process and rules of thumb derived from an analytical approximation. We discover that managing a protected area for a cryptic threatened species can be optimal even if we are not sure the species is present. The more threatened and valuable the species is, relative to the costs of management, the more likely we are to manage this species without determining its continued persistence by using surveys. If a species remains unseen, our belief in the persistence of the species declines to a point where the optimal strategy is to shift resources from saving the species to surveying for it. Finally, when surveys lead to a sufficiently low belief that the species is extant, we surrender resources to other conservation actions. We illustrate our findings with a case study using parameters based on the critically endangered Sumatran tiger (Panthera tigris sumatrae), and we generate rules of thumb on how to allocate conservation effort for any cryptic species. Using Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes in conservation science, we determine the conditions under which it is better to abandon management for that species because our belief that it continues to exist is too low.
Related Links	http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0805265105
Ending Page	13940
Page Count	5
Starting Page	13936
File Format	PDF
ISSN	00278424
e-ISSN	10916490
Journal	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Issue Number	37
Volume Number	105
Language	English
Publisher	National Academy of Sciences
Publisher Date	2008-09-16
Access Restriction	Open
Rights Holder	National Academy of Sciences
Subject Keyword	General Research in Higher Education
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Multidisciplinary

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