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| Content Provider | OECD iLibrary |
|---|---|
| Organization | OECD |
| Abstract | De par sa lenteur et son irrégularité, la reprise mondiale actuelle n’est pas sans rappeler certaines phases de redressement observées dans le passé. Après des premiers signes encourageants début 2002, ayant en partie un caractère technique et reflétant un ralentissement du déstockage, l’élan s’est ralenti au deuxième trimestre. Néanmoins, des mesures de relance considérables ont rapidement été prises sur les plans monétaire et budgétaire. Celles-ci ont manifestement stimulé les dépenses publiques, la consommation et l’investissement en logements en Amérique du Nord et dans certaines économies européennes jusqu’à la mi-2002. Leurs effets, renforcés par le récent assouplissement de la politique monétaire, continueront de se faire sentir pendant un certain temps encore. Le redémarrage apparent du secteur des technologies de l’information, de même que la bonne tenue de la croissance dans la plupart des pays d’Asie, à l’exception du Japon et de la Russie, exercent également une influence favorable. Une rechute dans la récession paraît donc improbable, malgré le fait qu’une plus grande incertitude géopolitique et une baisse supplémentaire du cours des actions ont pesé sur la confiance au second semestre de cette année. Globalement, cependant, la croissance du PIB de la zone OCDE ne dépassera pas 1½ pour cent en 2002 et une reprise généralisée ne semble pas devoir s’amorcer tant que les incertitudes actuelles ne se seront pas dissipées, ce qui ne se produira peut-être pas avant le courant de 2003. L’écart de production ne devrait commencer à rétrécir qu’en 2004. |
| Page Count | 43 |
| Starting Page | 1 |
| Ending Page | 38 |
| Language | French |
| Publisher | OECD Publishing |
| Publisher Date | 2003-01-03 |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Subject Keyword | Economics |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Chapter |
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