NDLI: Wavelet-based short-term forecasting with improved threshold recognition for urban expressway traffic conditions

Content Provider	IET Digital Library
Author	Xiangxue, Wang Lunhui, Xu
Abstract	Accurate traffic flow prediction can provide reliable and precise information for traffic departments to formulate effective management measures and assist drivers in performing more intelligent route planning and rerouting. The authors propose a short-term traffic flow forecasting framework for urban expressways based on data-driven mixed models including an approach to traffic flow threshold identification based on an improved semi-supervised K-means clustering algorithm, a hybrid multi-scale traffic speed forecasting method based on wavelet decomposition, and a traffic condition index corresponding to three-phase traffic flow theory for reflecting traffic status in real time. Model performance evaluation is performed using multi-source travel speed data. The results show that the traffic threshold recognition algorithm can correctly identify traffic speed thresholds confirming to the three-phase traffic flow transition and that the proposed short-term estimation technique outperforms traditional auto-regressive integrated moving average models, extended Kalman filtering methods, and artificial neural network models in terms of both accuracy and robustness. The proposed traffic condition index using adaptive thresholds and predicted speeds can provide real-time quantitative surveillance for urban expressway traffic.
Starting Page	463
Ending Page	473
Page Count	11
ISSN	1751956X
Volume Number	12
e-ISSN	17519578
Issue Number	Issue 6, Aug (2018)
Alternate Webpage(s)	https://digital-library.theiet.org/content/journals/iet-its/12/6
Alternate Webpage(s)	https://digital-library.theiet.org/content/journals/10.1049/iet-its.2017.0236
Journal	IET Intelligent Transport Systems
Publisher Date	2018-01-30
Access Restriction	Open
Rights Holder	© The Institution of Engineering and Technology
Subject Keyword	Adaptive Thresholds Data Handling Technique Data-driven Mixed Model Discrete Wavelet Transform Driver Information System Hybrid Multiscale Traffic Speed Forecasting Method Improved Semisupervised K-means Clustering Algorithm Improved Threshold Recognition Integral Transforms Intelligent Route Planning Intelligent Transport System Model Performance Evaluation Multisource Travel Speed Data Pattern Clustering Real-time Quantitative Surveillance Rerouting Road Traffic Control Three-phase Traffic Flow Theory Three-phase Traffic Flow Transition Traffic Condition Index Traffic Engineering Computing Traffic Flow Prediction Traffic Flow Threshold Identification Traffic Status Traffic Threshold Recognition Algorithm Urban Expressway Traffic Condition Wavelet Decomposition Wavelet-based Short-term Flow Forecasting
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Law Transportation Environmental Science Mechanical Engineering

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