NDLI: Combined probabilistic forecasting method for photovoltaic power using an improved Markov chain

Content Provider	IET Digital Library
Author	Chen, Bo Li, Jinghua
Abstract	A novel combined probabilistic forecasting method based on an improved Markov chain for photovoltaics (PVs) to enhance the accuracy of probabilistic PV power forecasting is presented. First, a Markov chain (MC) forecasting structure combining precise factors is proposed that considers more influence factors beyond the statistical information of historical data as compared with conventional MCs. Rough set theory is then used to refine the major factors to quantify the influence of those factors. Furthermore, a k-nearest neighbours algorithm is used to select similar samples for building an accurate forecasting model. Based on similar samples, the changing PV trends are more obvious than when using whole historical samples, thus further improving forecasting accuracy. Finally, the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method are verified by comparing results from simulations with the results from competing methods for two cases using datasets from DESERT KNOWLEDGE AUSTRALIA Solar Centre and GEFCom2014. The simulation results show that the proposed method can provide probabilistic forecasting results with better performance, also, the proposed method can be adapted to various forecasting scenarios.
Starting Page	4364
Ending Page	4373
Page Count	10
ISSN	17518687
Volume Number	13
e-ISSN	17518695
Issue Number	Issue 19, Oct (2019)
Alternate Webpage(s)	https://digital-library.theiet.org/content/journals/iet-gtd/13/19
Alternate Webpage(s)	https://digital-library.theiet.org/content/journals/10.1049/iet-gtd.2018.6860
Journal	IET Generation, Transmission & Distribution
Publisher Date	2019-08-13
Access Restriction	Open
Rights Holder	© The Institution of Engineering and Technology
Subject Keyword	Accurate Forecasting Model Changing PV Trends Forecasting Accuracy Forecasting Scenario Historical Data Historical Sample Improved Markov Chain K-nearest Neighbours Algorithm Load Forecasting Markov Chain Forecasting Structure Markov Processes Novel Combined Probabilistic Forecasting Method Photovoltaic Power Photovoltaic Power System Photovoltaics Power Engineering Computing Power Grid Power System Planning And Layout Precise Factors Probabilistic Forecasting Result Probabilistic PV Power Forecasting Probability Rough Set Theory Similar Sample Solar Power Stations Statistics Weather Analysis And Prediction Weather Forecasting
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Control and Systems Engineering Energy Engineering and Power Technology Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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