NDLI: Toward order-of-magnitude cascade prediction

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Guo, Ruocheng Shaabani, Elham Bhatnagar, Abhinav Shakarian, Paulo
Copyright Year	2015
Description	Author affiliation: Arizona State University Tempe, AZ (Guo, Ruocheng; Shaabani, Elham; Bhatnagar, Abhinav; Shakarian, Paulo)
Abstract	When a piece of information (microblog, photograph, video, link, etc.) starts to spread in a social network, an important question arises: will it spread to "viral" proportions — where "viral" is defined as an order-of-magnitude increase. However, several previous studies have established that cascade size and frequency are related through a power-law — which leads to a severe imbalance in this classification problem. In this paper, we devise a suite of measurements based on "structural diversity" — the variety of social contexts (communities) in which individuals partaking in a given cascade engage. We demonstrate these measures are able to distinguish viral from non-viral cascades, despite the severe imbalance of the data for this problem. Further, we leverage these measurements as features in a classification approach, successfully predicting microblogs that grow from 50 to 500 reposts with precision of 0.69 and recall of 0.52 for the viral class — despite this class comprising under 2% of samples. This significantly outperforms our baseline approach as well as the current state-of-the-art. Our work also demonstrates how we can tradeoff between precision and recall.
Starting Page	1610
Ending Page	1613
File Size	560938
Page Count	4
File Format	PDF
ISBN	9781450338547
DOI	10.1145/2808797.2809358
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	2015-08-25
Publisher Place	France
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Rights Holder	Association for Computing Machinery, Inc. (ACM)
Subject Keyword	Context Social network services Impurities Current measurement MIMICs Entropy Cultural differences
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
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9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

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