NDLI: Combined application of the hierarchical decision process with time series analysis: a telecommunications industry forecasting application

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Chancey, K.
Copyright Year	1991
Description	Author affiliation: Alaska Anvil Consulting Eng., Anchorage, AK, USA (Chancey, K.)
Abstract	Summary form only given, as follows. The author incorporates elements of two types of forecasting processes, time series analysis and the hierarchical decision process (HDP), to optimize the advantages of each forecasting telephone lines and stations in use for the Anchorage Telephone Utility (ATU). A particular service area was selected because results of a time series forecasting model revealed a declining service requirement for this area, which was contrary to the opinions of several experienced ATU forecasters and managers. An expert panel was chosen. The HDP model for evaluating decisions was applied by the panel to determine the relative influence of several changes in the telecommunications market on the future growth of a specific service area. Relative growth rates generated from the HDP model were combined with results of a time series analysis to produce a new service requirement forecast. Results indicate that the combination of historical, object data and subjective, judgmental factors can be useful in projecting quantities with multiple influencing factors. The process is beneficial both in terms of increased accuracy of the forecast and in terms of providing an improved management decisionmaking tool.<>
File Size	61730
File Format	PDF
ISBN	0780301617
DOI	10.1109/PICMET.1991.183764
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	1991-10-27
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Engineering management Time series analysis Decision making Communication industry Power generation economics Telephony Predictive models Economic forecasting Telecommunications Research and development management
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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