NDLI: A baseline time series data mining model for forecasts in port logistics and economics

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Halabi Echeverry, A.X. Richards, D. Bilgin, A.
Copyright Year	2013
Description	Author affiliation: Stat. Dept., Macquarie Univ., Sydney, NSW, Australia (Bilgin, A.) \|\| Comput. Dept., Macquarie Univ., Sydney, NSW, Australia (Halabi Echeverry, A.X.; Richards, D.)
Abstract	This paper addresses the question of how to develop forecasting models resulting from business processes that can be embodied in an intelligent decision support system. Moreover the design is suitable for evolving logistics and economic situations in which ports plan or foresee to have an improved economic role. The key objective of this work is to offer a model-based approach to Time Series Data Mining (TSDM) based on the assumptions that the time series may be produced by an underlying model, and that its flexibility is suitable to perform multivariate time-series analysis encompassing the notion of model selection and statistical learning known as the core of forecasting systems. Results indicate that for the period 2001 to 2005, the commodity throughput of coffee (tons) handled in the port of Buenaventura gains importance in the prediction of the Colombian national exports of coffee, thus indicating that the port operation was able to affect the economy in this regard. The previous period was strongly affected by outliers, creating a random walk process difficult to fit but feasible to produce due to unstable conditions evidenced in the economy.
Starting Page	313
Ending Page	318
File Size	603241
Page Count	6
File Format	PDF
e-ISBN	9781479935161
DOI	10.1109/ISDA.2013.6920755
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	2013-12-08
Publisher Place	Malaysia
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Economics port economics Adaptation models Analytical models Buenaventura Port Predictive models Throughput port logistics Time Series Data Mining Reliability Forecasting forecasts
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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