NDLI: A simulation study on the impact of forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect in the supply chain

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Chaharsooghi, S.K. Faramarzi, H. Heydari, J.
Copyright Year	2008
Description	Author affiliation: Sch. of Bus. & Econ., Wilfrid Laurier Univ., Waterloo, ON, Canada (Faramarzi, H.) \|\| Dept. of Ind. Eng., Tarbiat Modares Univ., Tehran, Iran (Chaharsooghi, S.K.; Heydari, J.)
Abstract	Bullwhip effect is undesirable in the supply chains, exacerbating its performance. Various factors can cause bullwhip effect, one of which is customer demand forecasting. In this paper, impact of forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect has been considered. A simulation study is implemented considering a supply chain consisting of one supplier and four retailers. A time series procedure (ARMA) is used as the forecasting method and is compared with two of the most applicable forecasting methods (moving average (MA) and exponential smoothing (ES)), from both bullwhip effect and forecasting accuracy point of view. Our findings show that having more accurate forecasting method is not equivalent to creating less bullwhip effect.
Starting Page	1875
Ending Page	1879
File Size	891581
Page Count	5
File Format	PDF
ISBN	9781424426294
DOI	10.1109/IEEM.2008.4738197
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	2008-12-08
Publisher Place	Singapore
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Costs Supply chain management Smoothing methods Supply chains Demand forecasting Companies Time series Predictive models Industrial engineering Bullwhip effect Supply chain Economic forecasting Virtual manufacturing Forecasting methods
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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