NDLI: Models for long-term energy forecasting

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Fu, C.W. Nguyen, T.T.
Copyright Year	2003
Description	Author affiliation: Sch. of Electr., Electron. & Comput. Eng., Western Australia Univ., Crawley, Australia (Fu, C.W.; Nguyen, T.T.)
Abstract	Based on historical data related to an actual power system, the paper develops and evaluates the accuracy of a range of mathematical models for long-term forecasting of energy demand in the system. Starting from the basic relationship in an econometric model based on regression analysis, the development and evaluation are extended to include advanced and recently-proposed methods which use dynamical functional-link net (FLN) and wavelet networks. The constrained optimisation technique based on sequential quadratic programming (SQP) is applied to identify the parameters of the forecasting models. Extensive testing indicates that the model using wavelet functions gives the best performance in terms of forecasting accuracy. Finally, the effect of temperature on energy demand is incorporated in this model, which leads to a probabilistic method of long-term energy demand forecasting.
Starting Page	235
Ending Page	239
File Size	481049
Page Count	5
File Format	PDF
ISBN	0780379896
DOI	10.1109/PES.2003.1267174
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	2003-07-13
Publisher Place	Canada
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Predictive models Load forecasting Demand forecasting Power system modeling Economic forecasting Power system analysis computing Mathematical model Econometrics Regression analysis Wavelet analysis
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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