NDLI: Hourly Forecasting of Long Term Electric Energy Demand Using a Novel Modeling Approach

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Filik, U.B. Gerek, O.N. Kurban, M.
Copyright Year	2009
Abstract	In this study, hourly forecasting of long term electric energy demand is proposed using a novel modeling approach. Previous works regarding energy demand forecasting either treated the problem of long term prediction over yearly averages, or considered hourly prediction using a very short term time lag, such as a few hours. The proposed method produces predictions with hourly accuracy; however the proposed time lag is "years", making the model suitable for long term prediction. The model is constructed and verified using 4-year-long real-life hourly load data obtained from Turkish Electric Power Company. The method consists of a nested combination of three sub-sections for modeling. The first section is the coarse level for modeling yearly average loads. The second section refines this structure by modeling weekly residual load variations within a year. The final section reaches to the hourly variations within a week, using a novel 2-D mathematical representation at this resolution. Consequently, the combination yields a unified model for short-, medium-, and long-term hourly load forecasting.
Starting Page	115
Ending Page	118
File Size	362625
Page Count	4
File Format	PDF
ISBN	9781424455430
e-ISBN	9781424455447
DOI	10.1109/ICICIC.2009.231
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	2009-12-07
Publisher Place	Taiwan
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Accuracy Load forecasting Demand forecasting Power system planning Predictive models Economic forecasting Load management Autoregressive processes Load modeling Power engineering and energy
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
6	Contents and Copyright Issues	Queries related to content curation and copyright issues	content@ndl.gov.in
7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
8	Digital Preservation Centre (DPC)	Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books	dpc@ndl.gov.in
9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

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