NDLI: Propagation of uncertainty in a simulation-based maritime risk assessment model utilizing Bayesian simulation techniques

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Merrick, J.R.W. Dinesh, V. Amita Singh van Dorp, J.R. Mazzuchi, T.A.
Copyright Year	2003
Description	Author affiliation: Dept. of Stat. Sci. & Operations Res., Virginia Commonwealth Univ., Richmond, VA, USA (Merrick, J.R.W.; Dinesh, V.)
Abstract	Recent studies in the assessment of risk in maritime transportation systems have used simulation-based probabilistic techniques. Amongst them are the San Francisco Bay (SFB) Ferry exposure assessment in 2002, the Washington State Ferry (WFS) Risk Assessment in 1998 and the Prince William Sound (PWS) Risk Assessment in 1996. Representing uncertainty in such simulation models is fundamental to quantifying system risk. This paper illustrates the representation of uncertainty in simulation using Bayesian techniques to model input and output uncertainty. These uncertainty representations describe system randomness as well as lack of knowledge about the system. The study of the impact of proposed ferry service expansions in San Francisco Bay is used as a case study to demonstrate the Bayesian simulation technique. Such characterization of uncertainty in simulation-based analysis provides the user with a greater level of information enabling improved decision making.
Sponsorship	American Statistical Assoc. Assoc. for Comput. Machinery, Special Interest Group on Simulation IEEE Comput. Soc. IEEE Systems, Man and Cybernetics Soc. IIE Inst. for Oper. Res. and the Management Sci. College on Simulation Nat. Inst. of Standards and Technol. Soc. for Mideling and Simulation Int
Starting Page	449
Ending Page	455
File Size	697931
Page Count	7
File Format	PDF
ISBN	0780381319
DOI	10.1109/WSC.2003.1261455
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	2003-12-07
Publisher Place	USA
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Uncertainty Risk management Bayesian methods Modeling Risk analysis Analytical models Safety Operations research Information analysis Transportation
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
6	Contents and Copyright Issues	Queries related to content curation and copyright issues	content@ndl.gov.in
7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
8	Digital Preservation Centre (DPC)	Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books	dpc@ndl.gov.in
9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

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