NDLI: Modified bifurcation diagrams to analyse the intermittency observed in local climate dynamics

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Kolokolov, Y. Monovskaya, A.
Copyright Year	2015
Description	Author affiliation: ITMO Univ., St. Petersburg, Russia (Kolokolov, Y.; Monovskaya, A.)
Abstract	Climate models excuse the grate variety of uncertainties in the observable dynamics by the complex nonlinear chaotic nature of climate, where the normal distribution remains the basis to estimate the chaotic uncertainty, and the trend estimations remains the basis to estimate regularities in climate dynamics. But, for example, the local dynamics of annual warming-cooling cycles seems to be one of the obscure points to comprehend why the annual behavior abruptly changes from year to year? The experimental bifurcation analysis to study the qualitative evolution of local climate dynamics is developed in the paper. We found on the conceptual model with a variable structure (HDS-model), where the dynamics is determined and restricted by the competition between the amplitude quantization and the time quantization. Then it becomes possible to show the different kinds of the interplay between several periodical processes in the local climate dynamics instead of chaos. Taking into account the abilities of both the fractal approach and SUC-logic to experimental bifurcation analysis, we realize the software to intelligent data processing instead of expert estimations. Then 2D parametrical diagram, 2D spacial diagram and the modified bifurcation diagrams with the revealed O-structures are built to research separately and comparatively the local climate dynamics. We introduce the notion of “likely periodicity” to describe the revealed synchronization of the bifurcation events with the sunspot cycles that seems to be the valid argument to verify the used HDS-model. So, the research concerns the computer intelligent tool to study the latent effects in local climate dynamics over centenary timescale.
Sponsorship	IEEE Ukraine Section
Starting Page	624
Ending Page	630
File Size	1406479
Page Count	7
File Format	PDF
ISBN	9781467383592
e-ISBN	9781467383615
DOI	10.1109/IDAACS.2015.7341379
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	2015-09-24
Publisher Place	Poland
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Meteorology Bifurcation Nonlinear dynamical systems Temperature distribution Quantization (signal) Land surface temperature Estimation climate dynamics bifurcation analysis fractal approach SUC-logic modified bifurcation diagram HDS-model annual warming-cooling cycle intermittency O-structure LTO-phenomenon RTO-phenomenon sunspot cycles likely periodicity temperature observations
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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