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Space radiation cancer risk projections for exploration missions: uncertainty reduction and mitigation
| Content Provider | NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) |
|---|---|
| Author | Saganti, Premkumar Dicello, John Wilson, John Peterson, Leif Schimmerling, Walter Cucinotta Sr., Francis Badhwar, Gautam |
| Copyright Year | 2002 |
| Description | In this paper we discuss expected lifetime excess cancer risks for astronauts returning from exploration class missions. For the first time we make a quantitative assessment of uncertainties in cancer risk projections for space radiation exposures. Late effects from the high charge and energy (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays including cancer and the poorly understood risks to the central nervous system constitute the major risks. Methods used to project risk in low Earth orbit are seen as highly uncertain for projecting risks on exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating HZE ion risks. Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions represents the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify risk projection overall uncertainty. Cancer risk analysis is applied to several exploration mission scenarios. At solar minimum, the number of days in space where career risk of less than the limiting 3% excess cancer mortality can be assured at a 95% confidence level is found to be only of the order of 100 days. |
| File Size | 4268907 |
| Page Count | 64 |
| File Format | |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://archive.org/details/NASA_NTRS_Archive_20020073167 |
| Archival Resource Key | ark:/13960/t7bs3r634 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher Date | 2002-08-01 |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Subject Keyword | Aerospace Medicine Planetary Environments Mortality Radiation Hazards Galactic Cosmic Rays Risk Ions Manned Space Flight Monte Carlo Method Radiation Dosage Confidence Limits Radiobiology Space Missions Low Earth Orbits Astronauts Space Exploration Cancer Ntrs Nasa Technical Reports Server (ntrs) Nasa Technical Reports Server Aerodynamics Aircraft Aerospace Engineering Aerospace Aeronautic Space Science |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Technical Report |
