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Looking to the future: a better way to study prospective economic voting (2008).
| Content Provider | CiteSeerX |
|---|---|
| Author | Michelitch, Kristin Morales, Marco Owen, Andrew Tucker, Joshua |
| Abstract | Why have mixed results been found in assessing the impact of prospective economic expectations on vote choice? This paper offers an answer and a solution. We argue that the standard prospective economic expectation survey question- “how will the economy perform over the next 12 months? ”- contains an unacceptably large degree of measurement error. Indeed, in most election studies, we can not know how respondents are answering this question. Thus we posit seven ”response regimes ” respondents could be using to answer this question and illustrate how significantly findings vary depending on the response regime employed. Our solution turns to Downs ’ (1957) original formulation of prospective voting, which calls for future economic evaluations conditional on which party wins the election. |
| File Format | |
| Publisher Date | 2008-01-01 |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Subject Keyword | Study Prospective Economic Voting Large Degree Economy Perform Election Study Response Regime Respondent Measurement Error Prospective Voting Vote Choice Response Regime Future Economic Evaluation Original Formulation Prospective Economic Expectation |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
