NDLI: Development of a Conservative Model Validation Approach for Reliable Analysis

Content Provider	The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Digital Collection
Author	Moon, Min-Yeong Choi, K. K. Cho, Hyunkyoo Gaul, Nicholas Lamb, David Gorsich, David
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	Simulation models are approximations of real-world physical systems. Therefore, simulation model validation is necessary for the simulation-based design process to provide reliable products. However, due to the cost of product testing, experimental data in the context of model validation is limited for a given design. When the experimental data is limited, a true output PDF cannot be correctly obtained. Therefore, reliable target output PDF needs to be used to update the simulation model. In this paper, a new model validation approach is proposed to obtain a conservative estimation of the target output PDF for validation of the simulation model in reliability analysis. The proposed method considers the uncertainty induced by insufficient experimental data in estimation of predicted output PDFs by using Bayesian analysis. Then, a target output PDF and a probability of failure are selected from these predicted output PDFs at a user-specified conservativeness level for validation. For validation, the calibration parameter and model bias are optimized to minimize a validation measure of the simulation output PDF and the conservative target output PDF subject to the conservative probability of failure. For the optimization, accurate sensitivity of the validation measure is obtained using the complex variable method (CVM) for sensitivity analysis. As the target output PDF satisfies the user-specified conservativeness level, the validated simulation model provides a conservative representation of the experimental data. A simply supported beam is used to carry out the convergence study and demonstrate that the proposed method establishes a conservatively reliable simulation model.
Sponsorship	Design Engineering Division Computers and Information in Engineering Division
File Format	PDF
ISBN	9780791857083
DOI	10.1115/DETC2015-46982
Volume Number	Volume 2B: 41st Design Automation Conference
Conference Proceedings	ASME 2015 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference
Language	English
Publisher Date	2015-08-02
Publisher Place	Boston, Massachusetts, USA
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Subject Keyword	Uncertainty Approximation Sensitivity analysis Simulation models Probability Event history analysis Calibration Product testing Optimization Design Simply supported beams Simulation Model validation Failure
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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